VICI Properties (VICI): fair value

Fair-value band

The normal range for this name runs from $23 (cheap) to $31 (expensive); it is now priced at $25.

That is 0.7σ below this name's own normal premium.

Is VICI Properties undervalued?

Fair, relative to its own history. VICI Properties trades at $25, 10% below the fair value this model estimates, but it has habitually traded 3% below fair value, and today's gap is 0.7σ below that norm, within the range it normally trades in, so the verdict is Fair: priced normally for itself, not necessarily fairly valued.

Diligence checklist

2 pass · 2 fail · 7 no data

• N/ACash actually collected from profit, median of the last 3 years: n/aXBRL · This test doesn't mean anything for VICI Properties. In a real estate business cash and debt are the raw material, not the cost of doing business, so the ratio measures how much lending is going on rather than how good the earnings are. I judge a business like this on reserve coverage, net interest margin, and price against tangible book value next to a normal return on equity.
• N/AGap between paper profit and real cash: n/aXBRL · This test doesn't mean anything for VICI Properties. In a real estate business cash and debt are the raw material, not the cost of doing business, so the ratio measures how much lending is going on rather than how good the earnings are. I judge a business like this on reserve coverage, net interest margin, and price against tangible book value next to a normal return on equity.
• N/ADebt compared to one year of cash earnings: n/aXBRL · This test doesn't mean anything for VICI Properties. In a real estate business cash and debt are the raw material, not the cost of doing business, so the ratio measures how much lending is going on rather than how good the earnings are. I judge a business like this on reserve coverage, net interest margin, and price against tangible book value next to a normal return on equity.
• FAILHow much more it earns on capital than that capital costs: -0.90ppXBRL · VICI Properties earns 0.9 points LESS on the capital it employs than that capital costs. Every dollar reinvested here destroys value instead of creating it, which turns growth into a reason to worry rather than a reason to own the business. It has been below its cost of capital for 2 straight quarters. Three years of that is where I stop work, so this is worth watching rather than ignoring. The gap is wider than it was at the start of the window.
• PASSStock sold by executives and directors on the open market, last 6 months: $0.0MEDGAR · Nobody running VICI Properties sold a single share on the open market in the last 6 months. That is the alignment I want: the people with the most information about the business are keeping their money in it. Options being exercised, and shares held back to cover the tax on them, are not sales and I don't count them either.
• N/AHow long the CEO has run this company: n/aTEXT · I couldn't establish when VICI Properties's current chief executive took the job: no appointment appears in the 8-K item 5.02 history.
• N/AProfit margin held up during the last sales slump: n/aXBRL · There's no revenue downturn in VICI Properties's filed record, or gross profit isn't tagged, so this test has nothing to measure. It needs a bad patch to look at: without one, whether customers would stay through a price rise is untested rather than proven.
• N/ANormal profit margin across a full business cycle: n/aXBRL · VICI Properties gets no valuation from me: free cash flow after capital spending doesn't describe a business whose balance sheet IS the operation, so there is no normal margin to hold today's against.
• N/AHow much of the stock trades on an average day: $221MMARKET · VICI Properties trades about $221M of stock a day. Taking a fifth of that for ten sessions, I could build or exit roughly $442M without leaning on the price. There's no pass or fail here because the answer depends on how big a position I'd actually want to take.
• FAILShare of revenue from its single biggest customer: 38%TEXT (dealbreaker) · VICI Properties's February 25, 2026 10-K names a single customer at 38% of revenue, in its own words: "Revenue from our lease agreements with MGM represented 38 %, 38 % and 39 % of our lease revenues for the years ended December 31, 2025, 2024 and 2023, respectively". More than a quarter of the top line riding on one buyer is a dealbreaker for me. No discount to fair value survives that customer deciding to leave, and the decision isn't VICI Properties's to make. filing ↗
• PASSWhether the company switched auditors in the last 2 years: noneEDGAR · Companies sometimes switch accounting auditors right before something bad is uncovered which can be a warning sign. VICI Properties hasn't changed auditors in the last 2 years, so there's no such red flag here.