Indicators / Market Rotation
Rotation · Cross-asset

Market Rotation

Capital rarely leaves the market; it moves between assets. This page tracks that across ten markets, net of the dollar.

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Stagflation. Inflows: Crypto, US Growth and Industrial Metals. Outflows: Precious Metals, Duration / Bonds and Agriculture. The move is narrow; most of the market is moving together. As of 2026-10-19.

Intensity—vs. its own 3y range Risk appetite—dollar-neutral Conviction—vs. chance · 50 = random
Rotation map
Last eight weeks
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How it works

What this measures

Market Rotation tracks where money is moving across ten markets, from gold and bonds to equities and bitcoin, rather than within one asset class. Each market's move is scaled by its own volatility, so an ordinary day in bitcoin and a big day in gold are not treated alike, and every reading is shown with the dollar's effect removed.

How to read it

Start with the summary card: the regime, what money is moving into and what it is leaving. The rotation map shows who is leading and who is fading. Flow lists the largest moves and the 12-month trend. The growth and inflation map places today's market in one of four corners. Liquidity shows whether the backdrop is helping or hurting risk assets.

Why remove the dollar

Everything here is priced in dollars, so a dollar move can look like money leaving everything at once. Each market is measured against the dollar and only the part the dollar does not explain is shown, which is the real demand.

Where the growth and inflation map comes from

Prices, not forecasts. Growth: copper against gold, small caps against large, cyclicals against defensives, junk bonds against Treasuries. Inflation: expected inflation, energy and broad commodities. Each is its three-month move compared with its own past year.

Where the liquidity data comes from

Weekly and daily series from FRED. Net liquidity is the Fed balance sheet less the Treasury's cash account and the reverse repo facility. For the yield curve in depth, see Rate Path.

The ten markets
Does it predict anything?

Note. The model runs privately and only the finished readings are published here. Implied flow is inferred from price co-movement, not measured fund flows. The validation figures describe the same window they were computed on and ignore trading costs. None of this is investment advice.