Money Confidence — Yavuz Akbay

SPY with confidence overlay

Last two years

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Smart money Dumb money Thresholds 0.68 / 0.35 Bullish zone Bearish zone

Prior signals

3-month forward SPY

Computing…

How it works

Two opposing crowds are scored 0–1 against their own trailing history: institutional "smart money" that leans contrarian into weakness, and retail "dumb money" that chases strength. The signal fires only when they disagree — smart money above 0.68 while dumb money is below 0.35, or the reverse.

The thresholds are not symmetric because the crowds are not. Retail confidence spends more time high than low, so 0.35 marks genuine capitulation while 0.68 on the institutional line is merely firm buying.

Note. The model runs privately and only the finished readings are published here. Prior-signal returns are computed from the same two-year series shown on this page, so they are a description of that window, not a backtest. None of this is investment advice.